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Stock Prices, Foreign Opportunity Cost, and Money Demand in Malaysia: A Cointegration and Error Correction Model Approach

Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, and Tang Boon Guan, (2004) Stock Prices, Foreign Opportunity Cost, and Money Demand in Malaysia: A Cointegration and Error Correction Model Approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 38 . pp. 29-62. ISSN 01271962

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Official URL: http://pkukmweb.ukm.my/~penerbit/jurnal_pdf/ekon38_02.pdf

Affiliations

Universiti Utara Malaysia. Fakulti Ekonomi
Universiti Utara Malaysia. Fakulti Ekonomi

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relevance of stock price and foreign opportunity cost variables to the money demand function in Malaysia using quarterly data over the period of 1982:1 to 1998:2 by employing recently developed econometric techniques of cointegration and error correction modeling. To take into account the effect of Asian Financial Crisis in mid 1997 on the behavior of the demand for money in Malaysia, the sample period is divided into two sub-samples: 1982:1 to 1996:4 and 1982:1 to 1998:2. The results provide evidence that the crisis somewhat affect the behavior of the money demand. The results of the study also show that the real money balances, real income, money’s own rate of return, the rate of return of alternative assets, stock prices, expected exchange rate depreciation and foreign interest rate are cointegrated suggesting the existence of a stable long run relationship among them in spite of the financial liberalization and innovation process that the Malaysian financial system has been experiencing. In addition, the results also indicate the dominance of wealth effect over substitution effect and the presence of currency substitution in Malaysia.
Tujuan utama kajian ini ialah untuk menyiasat kerelevanan harga stok
dan pembolehubah kos melepas asing dalam fungsi permintaan wang di
Malaysia dengan menggunakan teknik kointegrasi dan model pembetulan
ralat. Analisis dijalankan menggunakan data sukuan bagi jangkamasa
1982:1 hingga 1998:2. Bagi mengambilkira kesan krisis kawangan Asia
pada pertengahan tahun 1997 ke atas gelagat permintaan wang di Malaysia, sample data dibahagikan kepada dua jangkamasa; 1982:1 hingga
1996:4 dan 1982:1 hingga 1998:2. Hasil kajian menunjukkan krisis
kewangan mempunyai kesan keatas gelagat permintaan wang. Hasil
kajian juga menunjukkan baki benar, pendapatan benar, kadar pulangan
wang, kadar pulangan asset alternatif, harga stok, penurunan nilai kadar
tukaran asing dijangka, dan kadar faedah asing adalah berkointegrasi. Ini
menunjukkan keujudan hubungan jangka panjang yang stabil antara pembolehubah
tersebut walaupun sistem kewangan negara mengalami proses
liberalisasi dan inovasi. Di samping itu, hasil kajian juga menunjukkan
kesan pendapatan adalah lebih dominan berbanding kesan penggantian
dan keujudan penggantian matawang di Malaysia.

Item Type:Journal
Keywords:stock prices; foreign opportunity cost; money demand; cointegration, econometrics, Malaysia
Subjects:H Social Sciences, Economics, Sociology
ID Code:6050

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